Over the last few years, increases in ads, SERP Features, and direct answers pulled away clicks from organic results, but Google doesn't make it easy to understand these changes.
Most importantly, Google announced making widespread changes to Search as more users interact with AI chatbots and platforms like TikTok to find what they're looking for.
Measuring the impact of SERP layout changes on organic traffic is complex. As a result, we often don't find the right way to turn negative traffic trends around and lose credibility.
The big question is, "How can you measure the impact of changes in the search results?"
The solution is an organic traffic erosion analysis. Below, I'll show you exactly how to run one.
SEO erosion occurs when organic traffic for keywords declines over time for a reason that's not related to an issue with the website.
An erosion analysis focuses on understanding three patterns:
The example in the screenshot below shows how organic rank is stable throughout the last 12 months, but CTR dropped.
The same view with impressions instead of rank (since we know it's flat) shows how impressions grow, but CTR remains unchanged. More people see the result but don't click because something else seems to deliver a better result.
3 reasons cause organic traffic erosion:
The tricky thing about SEO erosion is that its impact is sneaky. You don’t notice it until your SEO revenue is down -20% Y/Y and you wonder what happened.
Erosion is especially difficult to catch over the last 3 years because the pandemic disrupted user behavior so much. Many keywords have way lower search volumes this and last year because the pandemic pulled demand forward.
3 red flags tell you if organic traffic erosion might occur:
We can use traffic data from Search Console and Google Analytics or your web analytics tool of choice to define and validate hypotheses for eroding organic traffic.
Just GSC data itself is already helpful to understand where you lost traffic without losing ranks.
But we can take it a step further. In the screenshot below, you see an example of an erosion analysis with changes in organic rank, traffic, conversions and revenue compared to the previous year and paid traffic. It allows you to quickly spot patterns of pages that lost organic but gained paid traffic or lost organic traffic with stable ranks.
Here's how you can build such an analysis yourself:
The first step to finding out whether your organic traffic is eroding or exploding is creating a custom click curve for the last full month and comparing it year over year (Y/Y). I've extensively described it in The importance of custom click curves, so I won't spend time on how to create one here.
An erosion has occurred if your click curve shows lower click rates compared to the previous year. However, click curves can't tell you why, just that something has changed. You still need to figure out the driver, but be mindful that there might not be a single root cause.
To get closer to the main driver, you can use traffic data to narrow your hypothesis down. I'm using Google Analytics in combination with Search Console to describe the specific steps because it's the most used web analytics tool out there, but you can recreate the analysis with any tool.
In Universal Google Analytics:
Next, get organic ranks for each page from Search Console. This step works best with the Search Analytics for Sheets integration because you get more data, but you need to run separate pulls for each year (the extension has no comparison mode). Make sure to select the same time period as in Google Analytics.
In the last step, use VLOOKUP or INDEX MATCH to match Ga and GSC data by URL and calculate the delta between the last month and the same month last year. You might have to remove the protocol (https://) and root domain (www.domain.com) from the GSC data to match GA data.
Sort the sheet by negative organic revenue or conversions and look at the columns for rank and traffic to define your hypothesis.
To validate your hypothesis, isolate pages that dropped in organic traffic and look at SERP screenshots for queries that lost the most clicks/CTR/impressions. You can get this in Semrush under Position Tracking or Keyword Overview and in Ahrefs under Keyword Explorer (compare SERPs between two dates).
The more you narrow your view down, the sharper it becomes. There are several ways to segment your data:
AI Chatbots and the fragmentation of Search put a lot of pressure on Google. I expect more organic traffic erosion due to new SERP features, more people using AI chatbots to get answers and more users leaning on vertical search engines like Amazon, Pinterest or Booking to find better results.
To keep track of the changes, I don't only recommend running erosion analyses at least every 6 months but also storing rank and traffic data in a data lake and visualizing changes over time.
More about the impact of SERP Features on organic traffic:
I was wondering how AI would affect content marketing. What kind of posts continue to do well for you in the post AI world?
@Kevin_Indig is there any way to become erosion proof(ish)?
Not really, unfortunately. It's a constant game of detecting erosion and compensating for it.
You can prevent Google from showing any snippets of your content in SERP by putting
nosnippet
in your page's<head>
:<meta name="robots" content="nosnippet">
But this will remove both Regular Snippets (short description of your page under your page's link) and Featured Snippets (your content that Google thinks will immediately answer the search's query). To remove the Featured Snippets only, you have to mess around with the
max-snippet:
directive, something like:<meta name="robots" content="max-snippet:170">
In most cases, this should retain the Regular Snippet and block the Featured Snippet. Here's a good guide on dialing in the
max-snippet:
directive.Featured Snippets result in higher SERP rankings. But this can mean fewer click thru's to your page... it just depends on if Google's Featured Snippet sufficiently answers the search query.
This was very insightful! thanks for sharing
I am building my own blog for my saas startup. Any suggestions how can i get my blog listed in top 10 search results.
Great insights, Kevin. In today's digital landscape, obtaining organic traffic has become more difficult, even for websites with strong SEO strategies.
Thanks info
Great post! Very valuable information and good insights!
A SAAS that is starting now, do you recommend investing in paid traffic or focusing on SEO?
It was really helpful
Has anyone tried programmatic SEO? or Chatgpt SEO plugins to publish content on the landing page? Any thoughts would be appreciated
Thanks for sharing, didn't know this until now.
thanks for sharing this information
Hey, thanks for an interesting article! What is your personal prognose regarding the niches of eroding organic traffic? The first victim from my pow would be the sphere of informational blogs with longreades and 1% of useful information inside..
I don't have access to specific data about organic traffic or the ability to measure it for my own purposes. As an AI language model, I don't have a website or generate organic traffic. Therefore, I don't have any organic traffic to erode or fix.
Definitely a great resource. Thank you
The provided information outlines the challenges of measuring the impact of changes in search results and suggests conducting an organic traffic erosion analysis. By analyzing organic and paid traffic data, as well as comparing click curves and SERP screenshots, it becomes possible to identify patterns and potential causes of organic traffic decline. This analysis is crucial for understanding and mitigating the effects of changes in SERP layouts on organic traffic. its helpfull i will aslo use it in my website (https://www.globalsources.com/manufacturers/caluanie-muelear-oxidize.html?utm_source=3009304)
I'm currently enjoying a flood of local traffic. I think our local SEO is currently working for us. Though, at this stage I'm really prioritizing how to improve further the quality of our products, in this case food. Thank you for sharing this and I'm gonna keep an eye on our stats because right now I'm just enjoying the growth.
Nice article, Kevin. Nowadays, it's becoming increasingly challenging to generate organic traffic, even with good SEO.
hi Kevin, useful article, thank for posting the same.
Also can you mention, if google is more and more moving to Paid search results in the first page than organic , and how to evaluate the same ?
We are seeing lot of business assets google is building on their search pages, like, Store inventory visibility, near me local ads, product listing etc.,
What methods should we use to grow our website?
Growing a website involves implementing various strategies and tactics to increase its visibility, attract more visitors, and engage the audience. Here are several effective methods you can use to grow your website:
Search Engine Optimization (SEO): Optimize your website for search engines to improve its organic visibility. Focus on keyword research, on-page optimization (meta tags, headings, content structure), site speed, mobile responsiveness, and building high-quality backlinks.
Content Marketing: Create valuable, informative, and engaging content that resonates with your target audience. Publish blog articles, videos, infographics, and other types of content regularly. Promote your content through social media, email marketing, and guest blogging to attract traffic and build brand authority.
Social Media Marketing: Leverage popular social media platforms (such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, and YouTube) to promote your website and engage with your audience. Share your content, participate in relevant discussions, run paid advertising campaigns, and build a community around your brand.
Email Marketing: Build an email list of interested users and regularly send them newsletters, updates, promotions, and exclusive content. Personalize your emails, provide value, and encourage recipients to visit your website.
Influencer Marketing: Collaborate with influencers and industry experts who have a significant following in your niche. They can promote your website, products, or services to their audience, driving targeted traffic and increasing brand awareness.
Pay-per-Click (PPC) Advertising: Use platforms like Google Ads or Bing Ads to run paid search and display advertising campaigns. Target relevant keywords and demographics to drive traffic to your website. Monitor and optimize your campaigns regularly to maximize their effectiveness.
Guest Blogging: Contribute high-quality articles to reputable websites and blogs in your industry. Include a link back to your website in the author bio or within the content. This helps you build backlinks, increase exposure, and establish yourself as an authority.
Online Communities and Forums: Engage in online communities and forums related to your niche. Provide helpful advice, answer questions, and participate in discussions. Include a link to your website in your profile or when relevant to drive targeted traffic.
Referral Programs: Implement a referral program to encourage your existing users or customers to refer others to your website. Offer incentives or rewards for successful referrals, such as discounts, exclusive content, or freebies.
Analytics and Optimization: Regularly analyze your website's performance using tools like Google Analytics. Identify areas for improvement, such as high bounce rates or low conversion rates, and make data-driven optimizations to enhance user experience and drive growth.
I have noticed a trend of showing more ads, yes. It's hard to track but you can use Semrush or Ahrefs or build your own SERP crawler with SERPapi.
Dear Kevin Indig,
I wanted to take a moment to express my heartfelt gratitude for your kind words and appreciation. It brings me great joy to know that I have been able to assist you and be of help.
As someone who is passionate about What methods should we use to grow our website?, my goal is to provide valuable insights and support to individuals like you. Knowing that I've made a positive impact on your journey is truly rewarding.
Please feel free to reach out to me anytime if you have further questions or require assistance. I'm here to help you succeed and achieve your goals.
Thank you once again for your kind words and for trusting me to be a part of your journey. Wishing you continued success and fulfillment in all your endeavors.
Warm regards,
Muhammad Ahmed
The information provided was valuable, and we have taken note for our strategy.
This was very useful, and we definitely
took a note for our strategy.
This Is super helpful, thanks! Bookmarked. I’m gonna put it in my calendar to run this analysis every 6 months.
Thanks!