2008 led to some great companies. If this is "the crash", will we see the same? if so, what industries?
There were some crazy companies that started during the last recession. This probably isn't all, but to name a few:
- AirBNB (2008)
- Groupon (2008)
- Uber (2009)
- Venmo (2009)
- Square (2009)
- Slack (2009)
- WhatsApp (2009)
- Instagram(2010)
- Pinterest(2010)
Some common themes with fintech, creator economy, and social media. I've heard before that the last recession led to these companies being formed. Not to be a skeptic but my question is -- there are great companies that start every year. Did the last recession play into these companies? And if so, why/how?
If this was true last time, curious if "the crash" that we are seeing in the markets would lead to a similar thing. If so, which markets do you think it would be?
My vote (and I don't love that I'm saying this -- not trying to be a crypto nut): Web3.
*Note: I did post this the other day, I just posted it super late at night while I couldn't sleep. Figured I'd post it at a more reasonable time since I think it's a fun discussion and would love to hear thoughts.
One factor playing into the success of companies launching during recessions is that capital is scarce during bad times. Ones that clear that hurdle often have few competitors and are able to corner large markets.
During boom times promising markets are often overcrowded with richly funded competitors. Companies have to burn a lot of capital with no clear winner. Often, consolidation happens with costly M&A at the end of the hype period.
I'm 27, so I was way too young in 2008 to comprehend VC and raising money. All I know is the crazy raising that has gone on recently. That's interesting.
Interesting question. A few of these (airbnb, groupon, uber) are about saving money or making more money on the side with the resources you have. If we're talking about a "crash", this may trend again. But with the resources available today, how could people save more money or make more money on the side? Personally, I've kept a closer eye on my spending as well.
This is an interesting question. One thing to notice is that most of the companies in your list are based on mobile. Their success probably had a lot more to do with the launch of the iPhone(2007) and then the App Store (2008) than the recession.
Another point to note is that the companies post-crash tend to be very different than the companies involved in the crash. The argument against crypto/web3 is that they are part of this crash.
I vote would be for VR/AR (note, not metaverse) companies. However, I don't think they will look anything like what we imagine them to be today (just as most people didn't predict a company like Uber to emerge in the Blackberry era).
Love it. Part of my reason for posting was because I sort of felt skeptical too, that there may be some sort of underlaying variable (mobile would make a ton of sense) to these companies. I feel like they are usually framed as being a result of the crash. But I don’t see how the 2008 crash would cause those companies to come about? There’s not necessarily a direct link from the crash to these pain points — Uber and airBnb would maybe be the only ones (making extra money). Or Groupon for saving money? Groupon would actually make sense.
Thanks for your thoughts. I appreciate the insights!